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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: May 21 2019 1:03 pm


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Day 2


Categorical Day 1 Outlook

000
ACUS01 KWNS 211250
SWODY1
SPC AC 211248

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF MISSOURI...WESTERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible today from Missouri and
western Illinois to portions of the Central Plains and Arklatex
regions.  Damaging gusts, large hail and a few tornadoes may occur.

...Synopsis...
The large-scale/upper-air pattern will be dominated by mean
troughing from the Gulf of Alaska across the western CONUS to
northern MX.  Two embedded mid/upper-level cyclones will affect this
regime, the first now centered over the southern Rockies near the
CO/NM line.  This leading low should eject eastward then northward
across the central Plains, in a curving pattern.  Meanwhile another
low -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery west of the OR
coastline, will dig southeastward across the Sierra and nearby parts
of CA/NV.  By the end of the period, a broad, somewhat dumbbell-
shaped cyclone with Fujiwhara vortex-interaction characteristics
should evolve around those two major/embedded circulations, and
extend from CA to the upper Mississippi Valley.  A pronounced ridge
will extend from a high over the Southeast across the upper Great
Lakes.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a complex area of low pressure,
diffused by overnight convective activity to the southeast and east,
and covering northwest OK, the northern TX Panhandle and
southwestern KS.  This should consolidate into a better-defined
cyclone through the day while moving across western/central KS to
south-central/southeastern NE.  Meanwhile a blended outflow boundary
and warm frontal zone was analyzed across northern AR into
northeastern OK, with a cold front over western OK and west-central
TX.  The cold front should catch up to a prefrontal convective
boundary through the period over eastern OK to central TX. 
Meanwhile the warm front/outflow zone should shift northward through
the Ozarks and MO, reaching portions of IA/IL by the end of the
period.

...MO/IL to Arklatex...
A QLCS with periodic/embedded bowing segments and bookend vortices,
with a history of quick-spinup tornadic/TDS activity in
central/southeastern OK, should proceed across portions of
east-central/northeast OK through the morning, either side of a
modifying outflow boundary from earlier convection.  Refer to SPC
watch 205 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term details.

The same complex, or a redeveloped version, is expected to pose an
expanding severe threat this afternoon over the Ozarks, with some
backbuilding or re-strengthening possible southwestward into the
rich reservoir of near-surface moisture over east TX.  This should
occur as a combination of warm advection and diabatic surface
heating contributes to destabilization all across the warm sector,
including air-mass recovery in areas of MO previously covered by
stabilizing outflow sampled well by 12Z SGF sounding.  Forecast
soundings and planar progs reasonably suggest a southward increase
in MLCAPE, from the 1000-1500 J/kg range over parts of MO to over
2000 J/kg in east TX (where the low-level forcing will be weaker,
hence more-conditional severe threat).

The presence of a stable layer near 700 mb appears to be related to
the northeastern fringe of a residual EML advected from the Mexican
plateau and observed in prior soundings.  This feature aloft,
similarly to yesterday over the OK/TX warm sector, may restrict
development of discrete convection ahead of the corridor of greatest
forcing -- in this case the outflow-reinforced effective cold front.
 As the leading/Rockies cyclone and trailing trough pivot across the
central/southern Plains, mid/upper winds will strengthen across this
region, boosting deep shear, while the pass response maintains or
increases low-level shear.  As such, the parameter space will favor
both damaging gusts (some severe), and occasional tornadoes. 
Tornado potential may be relatively maximized near residual outflow
boundaries and the warm frontal zone.  Severe potential overall
should diminish overnight as the cyclone ejects/occludes and the
nocturnal boundary layer stabilizes in the warm sector.

...Central Plains...
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
and move northward to northeastward across portions of KS/NE this
afternoon, offering sporadic large hail, damaging winds, and a
slight risk of tornadoes.

Being secluded from the richest Gulf-origin trajectories by outflow
to the south and southeast, supportive destabilization across this
region will arise mainly from cooling aloft, residual moisture, and
pockets of surface heating away from the antecedent convective-cloud
canopy.  Large-scale lift will occur as DCVA ahead of the ejecting
low/trough aloft, and the vertical circulation of the related upper-
level jet streak's cyclonically curved left-exit region.  Meanwhile
low-level convergence will be maximized near the front and cyclone,
beneath strong difluence in mid/upper levels.  A moisture/
instability axis near the boundary will support areas of 800-1500
J/kg MLCAPE, amidst deep shear increasing eastward from the
cold-core region, but still sufficient to support supercells and
organized multicells.

..Edwards/Leitman.. 05/21/2019

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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