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Information from NOAA Storm Prediction Center at this website

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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Sep 17 2021 1:32 pm


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Day 2


Categorical Day 1 Outlook

000
ACUS01 KWNS 171250
SWODY1
SPC AC 171249

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe storms may occur across the southern
High Plains late this afternoon and early evening.

...Southern High Plains including western portions KS/OK/TX...
A hot and semi-moist but well-mixed boundary layer will exist
near/ahead of a southeastward-sagging front across the region, with
isolated thunderstorms expected particularly during the late
afternoon through early/mid-evening. While deep-layer winds and
vertical shear will be weak (effective shear 20-25 kt at most), the
hot/well-mixed boundary layer characteristics could support some
stronger storms with wind gust potential on an isolated basis.

...Southern Arizona...
To the east of an inland-moving shortwave trough over southern
California, moisture will increase into southern Arizona toward the
Lower Colorado River Valley today. This may contribute to 500-1000
J/kg of MLCAPE this afternoon across far southern Arizona. Heating
will result in inverted-V profiles, and a few storms may develop in
this regime by late afternoon and early evening. Isolated, strong
convective gusts cannot be ruled out, but any severe wind risk
currently appears limited.

..Guyer/Smith.. 09/17/2021

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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