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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Sep 27 2020 4:58 pm


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Day 2


Categorical Day 1 Outlook

000
ACUS01 KWNS 271616
SWODY1
SPC AC 271615

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OK...NORTHWEST AR...EAST-CENTRAL KS AND WEST-CENTRAL MO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with quarter to golf ball hail as the
primary hazard are possible across parts of the south-central states
into tonight.

...South-central States...
See MCD 1719 for short-term discussion regarding initial supercell
development in east-central KS. This regime should remain separate
from late afternoon storm development farther south/southwest.

In response to the amplification of a mid-level trough over the
Great Plains, a surface cold front will surge southward and reach
the I-44 corridor in MO/OK by early evening, as a remnant lee
cyclone near the northwest TX/southwest OK border decays. In advance
of the front, upper 60s to low 70s boundary-layer dewpoints 
will continue to advect north from central/eastern TX into at least
central/eastern OK. The moisture advection will occur beneath a cap
associated with a warm elevated mixed layer, which will contribute
to a plume of MLCAPE from 1500 to 2500 J/kg.

Lift atop the frontal surface appears necessary for storm initiation
during the late afternoon/early evening near the I-44 corridor in OK
and southwest MO, with storms subsequently spreading southeast into
tonight. The initial convection will form close to the surface
front, but there should be a tendency for storms to become elevated
to the cool side of the boundary. Warm-sector development will
likely be limited by the cap, but a cell or two may form along the
periphery of it in the OK/AR border area. Low-level hodographs will
be sufficiently enlarged to warrant a tornado risk here. 

Otherwise, the moderate buoyancy with initially steep mid-level
lapse rates and effective bulk shear near 40 kt will support a few
embedded supercell structures, with an attendant threat for large
hail and/or strong outflow gusts with storms close to the surface
front. The severe threat will peak this evening, and then diminish
gradually overnight as the low levels stabilize and buoyancy
decreases.

..Grams/Elliott.. 09/27/2020

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com

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